Prasinezumab slows motor progression in rapidly progressing early-stage Parkinson's disease.

Prasinezumab, a monoclonal antibody that binds aggregated α-synuclein, is being investigated as a potential disease-modifying therapy in early-stage Parkinson's disease. Although in the PASADENA phase 2 study, the primary endpoint (Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) sum of Parts I + II + III) was not met, prasinezumab-treated individuals exhibited slower progression of motor signs than placebo-treated participants (MDS-UPDRS Part III). We report here an exploratory analysis assessing whether prasinezumab showed greater benefits on motor signs progression in prespecified subgroups with faster motor progression. Prasinezumab's potential effects on disease progression were assessed in four prespecified and six exploratory subpopulations of PASADENA: use of monoamine oxidase B inhibitors at baseline (yes versus no); Hoehn and Yahr stage (2 versus 1); rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (yes versus no); data-driven subphenotypes (diffuse malignant versus nondiffuse malignant); age at baseline (≥60 years versus <60 years); sex (male versus female); disease duration (>12 months versus <12 months); age at diagnosis (≥60 years versus <60 years); motor subphenotypes (akinetic-rigid versus tremor-dominant); and motor subphenotypes (postural instability gait dysfunction versus tremor-dominant). In these subpopulations, the effect of prasinezumab on slowing motor signs progression (MDS-UPDRS Part III) was greater in the rapidly progressing subpopulations (for example, participants who were diffuse malignant or taking monoamine oxidase B inhibitors at baseline). This exploratory analysis suggests that, in a trial of 1-year duration, prasinezumab might reduce motor progression to a greater extent in individuals with more rapidly progressing Parkinson's disease. However, because this was a post hoc analysis, additional randomized clinical trials are needed to validate these findings.

Racial and ethnic diversity in global neuroscience clinical trials.

Background: Despite efforts to increase diversity in neuroscience trials, racial and ethnic minority groups remain underrepresented. Disparities in clinical trial participation could reflect unequal opportunities to participate and may contribute to decreased generalizability of findings and failure to identify important differences in efficacy and safety outcomes. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the F. Hoffmann-La Roche database for global, multicenter, neuroscience clinical trials from February 2016 to February 2021 and summarized and stratified race and ethnicity distributions by clinical trial therapeutic area and by country. These data were then compared to national population data for each study's targeted age group (available for studies conducted in the US, Canada, and the UK). The underrepresentation or overrepresentation of each racial and ethnic group was summarized. Results: The analysis population included 8015 participants from 47 countries. Globally, 85.6 % of participants were White, 7.1 % were Asian, 1.6 % were Black, 1.3 % were American Indian or Alaska Native, less than 0.1 % were Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, 0.7 % were of multiple races, and 3.6 % were of other/unknown race. White individuals predominated in all but one trial. Black individuals were underrepresented in all trials but one. Asian individuals were overrepresented in approximately 20 % of trials. In the US, 7.3 % of participants were of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity vs 16.4 % of the US population. Conclusion: The findings and learnings from this summary and analysis demonstrate the need for continued awareness and new approaches in designing studies that reflect population diversity.

Two Phase 3 Trials of Gantenerumab in Early Alzheimer's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Monoclonal antibodies that target amyloid-beta (Aß) have the potential to slow cognitive and functional decline in persons with early Alzheimer's disease. Gantenerumab is a subcutaneously administered, fully human, anti-Aß IgG1 monoclonal antibody with highest affinity for aggregated Aß that has been tested for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. METHODS: We conducted two phase 3 trials (GRADUATE I and II) involving participants 50 to 90 years of age with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease and evidence of amyloid plaques on positron-emission tomography (PET) or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing. Participants were randomly assigned to receive gantenerumab or placebo every 2 weeks. The primary outcome was the change from baseline in the score on the Clinical Dementia Rating scale-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB; range, 0 to 18, with higher scores indicating greater cognitive impairment) at week 116. RESULTS: A total of 985 and 980 participants were enrolled in the GRADUATE I and II trials, respectively. The baseline CDR-SB score was 3.7 in the GRADUATE I trial and 3.6 in the GRADUATE II trial. The change from baseline in the CDR-SB score at week 116 was 3.35 with gantenerumab and 3.65 with placebo in the GRADUATE I trial (difference, -0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.66 to 0.05; P = 0.10) and was 2.82 with gantenerumab and 3.01 with placebo in the GRADUATE II trial (difference, -0.19; 95% CI, -0.55 to 0.17; P = 0.30). At week 116, the difference in the amyloid level on PET between the gantenerumab group and the placebo group was -66.44 and -56.46 centiloids in the GRADUATE I and II trials, respectively, and amyloid-negative status was attained in 28.0% and 26.8% of the participants receiving gantenerumab in the two trials. Across both trials, participants receiving gantenerumab had lower CSF levels of phosphorylated tau 181 and higher levels of Aß42 than those receiving placebo; the accumulation of aggregated tau on PET was similar in the two groups. Amyloid-related imaging abnormalities with edema (ARIA-E) occurred in 24.9% of the participants receiving gantenerumab, and symptomatic ARIA-E occurred in 5.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Among persons with early Alzheimer's disease, the use of gantenerumab led to a lower amyloid plaque burden than placebo at 116 weeks but was not associated with slower clinical decline. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche; GRADUATE I and II ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT03444870 and NCT03443973, respectively.).

Development of a quantitative semi-mechanistic model of Alzheimer's disease based on the amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration framework (the Q-ATN model).

INTRODUCTION: A quantitative model of Alzheimer's disease (AD) based on the amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration biomarker framework (Q-ATN model) was developed to sequentially link amyloid positron emission tomography (PET), tau PET, medial temporal cortical thickness, and clinical outcome (Clinical Dementia Rating - Sum of Boxes; CDR-SB). METHODS: Published data and biologically plausible mechanisms were used to construct, calibrate, and validate the model. Clinical trial simulations were performed for different anti-amyloid antibodies, including a 5-year simulation of subcutaneous gantenerumab treatment. RESULTS: The simulated time-course of biomarkers and CDR-SB was consistent with natural history studies and described the effects of several anti-amyloid antibodies observed in trials with positive and negative (or non-significant) outcomes. The 5-year simulation predicts that the beneficial effects of continued anti-amyloid treatment should increase markedly over time. DISCUSSION: The Q-ATN model offers a novel approach for linking amyloid PET to CDR-SB, and provides theoretical support for the potential clinical benefit of anti-amyloid therapy. HIGHLIGHTS: A semi-mechanistic model was developed to link amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration biomarkers to clinical outcome (Q-ATN model). The Q-ATN model describes the disease progression seen in natural history studies. Model simulations agree well with mean data from the aducanumab EMERGE study. A 5-year simulation of gantenerumab predicts greater benefit with longer treatment.

Gantenerumab: an anti-amyloid monoclonal antibody with potential disease-modifying effects in early Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: This review describes the research and development process of gantenerumab, a fully human anti-amyloid monoclonal antibody in development to treat early symptomatic and asymptomatic Alzheimer's disease (AD). Anti-amyloid monoclonal antibodies can substantially reverse amyloid plaque pathology and may modify the course of the disease by slowing or stopping its clinical progression. Several molecules targeting amyloid have failed in clinical development due to drug-related factors (e.g., treatment-limiting adverse events, low potency, poor brain penetration), study design/methodological issues (e.g., disease stage, lack of AD pathology confirmation), and other factors. The US Food and Drug Administration's approval of aducanumab, an anti-amyloid monoclonal antibody as the first potential disease-modifying therapy for AD, signaled the value of more than 20 years of drug development, adding to the available therapies the first nominal success since cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine were approved. BODY: Here, we review over 2 decades of gantenerumab development in the context of scientific discoveries in the broader AD field. Key learnings from the field were incorporated into the gantenerumab phase 3 program, including confirmed amyloid positivity as an entry criterion, an enriched clinical trial population to ensure measurable clinical decline, data-driven exposure-response models to inform a safe and efficacious dosing regimen, and the use of several blood-based biomarkers. Subcutaneous formulation for more pragmatic implementation was prioritized as a key feature from the beginning of the gantenerumab development program. CONCLUSION: The results from the gantenerumab phase 3 programs are expected by the end of 2022 and will add critical information to the collective knowledge on the search for effective AD treatments.

Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Crenezumab vs Placebo in Adults With Early Alzheimer Disease: Two Phase 3 Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trials.

Importance: Alzheimer disease (AD), a neurodegenerative disease characterized by ß-amyloid plaques and τ tangles in the brain, represents an unmet medical need with no fully approved therapeutics to modify disease progression. Objective: To investigate the safety and efficacy of crenezumab, a humanized monoclonal immunoglobulin G4 antibody targeting ß-amyloid oligomers, in participants with prodromal to mild (early) AD. Design, Setting, and Participants: Two phase 3 multicenter randomized double-blind placebo-controlled parallel-group efficacy and safety studies of crenezumab in participants with early AD, CREAD and CREAD2, were initiated in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and were designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of crenezumab in participants with early AD. CREAD (194 sites in 30 countries) and CREAD2 (209 sites in 27 countries) were global multicenter studies. A total of 3736 and 3664 participants were screened in CREAD and CREAD2, respectively. A total of 3736 and 3664 participants were screened in CREAD and CREAD2, respectively. Both trials enrolled individuals aged 50 to 85 years with early AD. Participants with some comorbidities and evidence of cerebral infarction or more than 4 microbleeds or areas of leptomeningeal hemosiderosis on magnetic resonance imaging were excluded. After 2923 and 2858 were excluded, respectively, 813 participants in CREAD and 806 in CREAD2 were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to either placebo or crenezumab. In the final analysis, there were 409 participants in the placebo group and 404 in the crenezumab group in CREAD and 399 in the placebo group and 407 in the crenezumab group in CREAD2. Data were analyzed up until January 2019 and August 2019, respectively. Interventions: Participants received placebo or 60 mg/kg crenezumab intravenously every 4 weeks for up to 100 weeks. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was change from baseline to week 105 in Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) score. Results: There were 813 participants in CREAD (mean [SD] age, 70.7 [8.2] years; 483 female and 330 male) and 806 in CREAD2 (mean [SD] age, 70.9 [7.7] years; 456 female and 350 male). Baseline characteristics were balanced between both groups. The between-group difference in mean change from baseline in CDR-SB score (placebo minus crenezumab) was -0.17 (95% CI, -0.86 to 0.53; P = .63) at week 105 in the CREAD study (88 placebo; 86 crenezumab). Compared with previous trials, no new safety signals were identified, and amyloid-related imaging abnormalities with edema were rare, mild, and transient. No meaningful changes in AD biomarkers were observed. Both studies were discontinued following a preplanned interim analysis indicating that CREAD was unlikely to meet the primary end point. Conclusions and Relevance: Crenezumab was well tolerated but did not reduce clinical decline in participants with early AD. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: CREAD, NCT02670083; CREAD2, NCT03114657.

Trial of Prasinezumab in Early-Stage Parkinson's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Aggregated α-synuclein plays an important role in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease. The monoclonal antibody prasinezumab, directed at aggregated α-synuclein, is being studied for its effect on Parkinson's disease. METHODS: In this phase 2 trial, we randomly assigned participants with early-stage Parkinson's disease in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive intravenous placebo or prasinezumab at a dose of 1500 mg or 4500 mg every 4 weeks for 52 weeks. The primary end point was the change from baseline to week 52 in the sum of scores on parts I, II, and III of the Movement Disorder Society-sponsored revision of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS; range, 0 to 236, with higher scores indicating greater impairment). Secondary end points included the dopamine transporter levels in the putamen of the hemisphere ipsilateral to the clinically more affected side of the body, as measured by 123I-ioflupane single-photon-emission computed tomography (SPECT). RESULTS: A total of 316 participants were enrolled; 105 were assigned to receive placebo, 105 to receive 1500 mg of prasinezumab, and 106 to receive 4500 mg of prasinezumab. The baseline mean MDS-UPDRS scores were 32.0 in the placebo group, 31.5 in the 1500-mg group, and 30.8 in the 4500-mg group, and mean (±SE) changes from baseline to 52 weeks were 9.4±1.2 in the placebo group, 7.4±1.2 in the 1500-mg group (difference vs. placebo, -2.0; 80% confidence interval [CI], -4.2 to 0.2; P = 0.24), and 8.8±1.2 in the 4500-mg group (difference vs. placebo, -0.6; 80% CI, -2.8 to 1.6; P = 0.72). There was no substantial difference between the active-treatment groups and the placebo group in dopamine transporter levels on SPECT. The results for most clinical secondary end points were similar in the active-treatment groups and the placebo group. Serious adverse events occurred in 6.7% of the participants in the 1500-mg group and in 7.5% of those in the 4500-mg group; infusion reactions occurred in 19.0% and 34.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Prasinezumab therapy had no meaningful effect on global or imaging measures of Parkinson's disease progression as compared with placebo and was associated with infusion reactions. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche and Prothena Biosciences; PASADENA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03100149.).

Connecting Cohorts to Diminish Alzheimer's Disease (CONCORD-AD): A Report of an International Research Collaboration Network.

Longitudinal observational cohort studies are being conducted worldwide to understand cognition, biomarkers, and the health of the aging population better. Cross-cohort comparisons and networks of registries in Alzheimer's disease (AD) foster scientific exchange, generate insights, and contribute to the evolving clinical science in AD. A scientific working group was convened with invited investigators from established cohort studies in AD, in order to form a research collaboration network as a resource to address important research questions. The Connecting Cohorts to Diminish Alzheimer's Disease (CONCORD-AD) collaboration network was created to bring together global resources and expertise, to generate insights and improve understanding of the natural history of AD, to inform design of clinical trials in all disease stages, and to plan for optimal patient access to disease-modifying therapies once they become available. The network brings together expertise and data insights from 7 cohorts across Australia, Europe, and North America. Notably, the network includes populations recruited through memory clinics as well as population-based cohorts, representing observations from individuals across the AD spectrum. This report aims to introduce the CONCORD-AD network, providing an overview of the cohorts involved, reporting the common assessments used, and describing the key characteristics of the cohort populations. Cohort study designs and baseline population characteristics are compared, and available cognitive, functional, and neuropsychiatric symptom data, as well as the frequency of biomarker assessments, are summarized. Finally, the challenges and opportunities of cross-cohort studies in AD are discussed.

A Phase II Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Prasinezumab in Early Parkinson's Disease (PASADENA): Rationale, Design, and Baseline Data.

Background: Currently available treatments for Parkinson's disease (PD) do not slow clinical progression nor target alpha-synuclein, a key protein associated with the disease. Objective: The study objective was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of prasinezumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody that binds aggregated alpha-synuclein, in individuals with early PD. Methods: The PASADENA study is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled treatment study. Individuals with early PD, recruited across the US and Europe, received monthly intravenous doses of prasinezumab (1,500 or 4,500 mg) or placebo for a 52-week period (Part 1), followed by a 52-week extension (Part 2) in which all participants received active treatment. Key inclusion criteria were: aged 40-80 years; Hoehn & Yahr (H&Y) Stage I or II; time from diagnosis ≤2 years; having bradykinesia plus one other cardinal sign of PD (e.g., resting tremor, rigidity); DAT-SPECT imaging consistent with PD; and either treatment naïve or on a stable monoamine oxidase B (MAO-B) inhibitor dose. Study design assumptions for sample size and study duration were built using a patient cohort from the Parkinson's Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI). In this report, baseline characteristics are compared between the treatment-naïve and MAO-B inhibitor-treated PASADENA cohorts and between the PASADENA and PPMI populations. Results: Of the 443 patients screened, 316 were enrolled into the PASADENA study between June 2017 and November 2018, with an average age of 59.9 years and 67.4% being male. Mean time from diagnosis at baseline was 10.11 months, with 75.3% in H&Y Stage II. Baseline motor and non-motor symptoms (assessed using Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale [MDS-UPDRS]) were similar in severity between the MAO-B inhibitor-treated and treatment-naïve PASADENA cohorts (MDS-UPDRS sum of Parts I + II + III [standard deviation (SD)]; 30.21 [11.96], 32.10 [13.20], respectively). The overall PASADENA population (63.6% treatment naïve and 36.4% on MAO-B inhibitor) showed a similar severity in MDS-UPDRS scores (e.g., MDS-UPDRS sum of Parts I + II + III [SD]; 31.41 [12.78], 32.63 [13.04], respectively) to the PPMI cohort (all treatment naïve). Conclusions: The PASADENA study population is suitable to investigate the potential of prasinezumab to slow disease progression in individuals with early PD. Trial Registration: NCT03100149.

Different Cognitive Profiles Are Associated with Progression Rate and Age at Death in Probable Alzheimer's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive profiles characterized by primarily language or visuospatial deficits have been documented in individuals meeting diagnostic criteria for probable Alzheimer's disease (AD), but their association with progression rate or overall survival is not well described. OBJECTIVE: To compare time from diagnosis to severe disease stage and death in probable AD patients classified into three groups based on neuropsychological test performance: marked verbal impairment (Verb-PI) with relatively preserved visuospatial function, marked visuospatial impairment with preserved verbal function (Vis-PI), and balanced verbal and visuospatial impairments (Bal-PI). METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 540 probable AD patients attending an academic memory clinic who were enrolled from 1995-2013 and followed annually. Eligible individuals had a Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score ≥10 at baseline, and at least one annual follow up visit. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to analyze the association of cognitive profiles with time to decline in MMSE and CDR Global Score. RESULTS: Sixty-one (11.3%) individuals had a Verb-PI profile, 86 (16%) had a Vis-PI profile, and 393 (72.8%) a Bal-PI profile. MMSE decline to <10 was faster in Verb-PI than Vis-PI (HR 2.004, 95%CI, 1.062-3.780; p = 0.032). Progression to CDR-GS = 3 was faster in Verb-PI individuals compared to Bal-PI (HR 1.604, 95%CI, 1.022-2.515; p = 0.040) or Vis-PI (HR 2.388, 95%CI, 1.330-4.288; p = 0.004) individuals. Baseline cognitive profile did not affect mortality. CONCLUSION: A recognition of different AD profiles may help to personalize care by providing a better understanding of pathogenesis and expected progression.

Longitudinal Sensitivity of Alzheimer's Disease Severity Staging.

Understanding Alzheimer's disease (AD) dynamics is essential in diagnosis and measuring progression for clinical decision-making; however, clinical instruments are imperfect at classifying true disease stages. This research evaluates sensitivity and determinants of AD stage changes longitudinally using current classifications of "mild," "moderate," and "severe" AD, using Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog), and the Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) thresholds. Age and pre-progression rate were significant determinants of AD progression using MMSE alone to stage AD, and pre-progression was found to impact disease progression with CDR-SB. Sensitivity of these instruments for identifying clinical stages of AD to correctly staging a "moderate" level of disease severity for outcomes MMSE, CDR-SB, and ADAS-Cog was 92%, 78%, and 92%, respectively. This research derives longitudinal sensitivity of clinical instruments used to stage AD useful for clinical decision-making. The MMSE and ADAS-Cog provided adequate sensitivity to classify AD stages.

What works and what does not work in Alzheimer's disease? From interventions on risk factors to anti-amyloid trials.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder with no approved disease-modifying therapy (DMT). In this review, we summarize the various past approaches taken in an attempt to find treatments capable of altering the long-term course for individuals with AD, including: translating epidemiological observations into potential treatment options; seeking a single-treatment approach across the continuum of AD severity; utilizing biomarkers for assessing target engagement; using biomarkers as early surrogates of clinical efficacy; and enriching study populations to demonstrate adequate placebo decline during the limited duration of clinical trials. Although targeting the amyloid-ß (Aß) pathway has been central to the search for an effective DMT, to date, trials of anti-Aß monoclonal antibodies have failed to consistently demonstrate significant clinical efficacy. Key learnings from these anti-Aß trials, as well as the trials that came before them, have shifted the focus within clinical development programs to identifying target populations thought most likely to benefit from treatments (i.e., individuals at an earlier stage of disease). Other learnings include strategies to increase the likelihood of showing measurable improvements within the clinical trial setting by better predicting decline in placebo participants, as well as developing measures to quantify the needed treatment exposure (e.g., higher doses). Given the complexity associated with AD pathology and progression, treatments targeting non-amyloid AD pathologies in combination with anti-amyloid therapies may offer an alternative for the successful development of DMTs.

Gantenerumab reduces amyloid-ß plaques in patients with prodromal to moderate Alzheimer's disease: a PET substudy interim analysis.

BACKGROUND: We previously investigated low doses (105 or 225 mg) of gantenerumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody that binds and removes aggregated amyloid-ß by Fc receptor-mediated phagocytosis, in the SCarlet RoAD (SR) and Marguerite RoAD (MR) phase 3 trials. Several lines of evidence suggested that higher doses may be necessary to achieve clinical efficacy. We therefore designed a positron emission tomography (PET) substudy to evaluate the effect of gantenerumab uptitrated to 1200 mg every 4 weeks on amyloid-ß plaques as measured using florbetapir PET in patients with prodromal to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: A subset of patients enrolled in the SR and MR studies who subsequently entered the open-label extensions (OLEs) were included in this substudy. Patients were aged 50 to 90 years with a clinical diagnosis of probable prodromal to moderate AD and were included based on a visual read of the original screening scan in the double-blind phase. Patients were assigned to 1 of 5 titration schedules (ranging from 2 to 10 months) with a target gantenerumab dose of 1200 mg every 4 weeks. The main endpoint of this substudy was change in amyloid-ß plaque burden from OLE baseline to week 52 and week 104, assessed using florbetapir PET. Florbetapir global cortical signal was calculated using a prespecified standard uptake value ratio method converted to the Centiloid scale. RESULTS: Sixty-seven of the 89 patients initially enrolled had ≥ 1 follow-up scan by August 15, 2018. Mean amyloid levels were reduced by 39 Centiloids by the first year and 59 Centiloids by year 2, a 3.5-times greater reduction than was seen after 2 years at 225 mg in SR. At years 1 and 2, 37% and 51% of patients, respectively, had amyloid-ß plaque levels below the amyloid-ß positivity threshold. CONCLUSION: Results from this exploratory interim analysis of the PET substudy suggest that gantenerumab doses up to 1200 mg resulted in robust amyloid-ß plaque removal at 2 years. PET amyloid levels were consistent with sparse-to-no neuritic amyloid-ß plaques in 51% of patients after 2 years of therapy. Amyloid reductions were similar to those observed in other placebo-controlled studies that have suggested potential clinical benefit. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01224106 (SCarlet RoAD) and NCT02051608 (Marguerite RoAD).

Statistical Model of Dynamic Markers of the Alzheimer's Pathological Cascade.

Objectives: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive disease reflected in markers across assessment modalities, including neuroimaging, cognitive testing, and evaluation of adaptive function. Identifying a single continuum of decline across assessment modalities in a single sample is statistically challenging because of the multivariate nature of the data. To address this challenge, we implemented advanced statistical analyses designed specifically to model complex data across a single continuum. Method: We analyzed data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI; N = 1,056), focusing on indicators from the assessments of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) volume, fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) metabolic activity, cognitive performance, and adaptive function. Item response theory was used to identify the continuum of decline. Then, through a process of statistical scaling, indicators across all modalities were linked to that continuum and analyzed. Results: Findings revealed that measures of MRI volume, FDG-PET metabolic activity, and adaptive function added measurement precision beyond that provided by cognitive measures, particularly in the relatively mild range of disease severity. More specifically, MRI volume, and FDG-PET metabolic activity become compromised in the very mild range of severity, followed by cognitive performance and finally adaptive function. Conclusion: Our statistically derived models of the AD pathological cascade are consistent with existing theoretical models.

Sembragiline in Moderate Alzheimer's Disease: Results of a Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Phase II Trial (MAyflOwer RoAD).

BACKGROUND: Sembragiline is a potent, selective, long-acting, and reversible MAO-B inhibitor developed as a potential treatment for Alzheimer's disease (AD). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of sembragiline in patients with moderate AD. METHODS: In this Phase II study (NCT01677754), 542 patients with moderate dementia (MMSE 13-20) on background acetylcholinesterase inhibitors with/without memantine were randomized (1:1:1) to sembragiline 1 mg, 5 mg, or placebo once daily orally for 52 weeks. RESULTS: No differences between treated groups and placebo in adverse events or in study completion. The primary endpoint, change from baseline in ADAS-Cog11, was not met. At Week 52, the difference between sembragiline and placebo in ADAS-Cog11 change from baseline was - 0.15 (p = 0.865) and 0.90 (p = 0.312) for 1 and 5 mg groups, respectively. Relative to placebo at Week 52 (but not at prior assessment times), the 1 mg and 5 mg sembragiline groups showed differences in ADCS-ADL of 2.64 (p = 0.051) and 1.89 (p = 0.160), respectively. A treatment effect in neuropsychiatric symptoms (as assessed by the difference between sembragiline and placebo on BEHAVE-AD-FW) was also seen at Week 52 only: - 2.80 (p = 0.014; 1 mg) and - 2.64 (p = 0.019; 5 mg), respectively. A post hoc subgroup analysis revealed greater treatment effects on behavior and functioning in patients with more severe baseline behavioral symptoms (above the median). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that sembragiline was well-tolerated in patients with moderate AD. The study missed its primary and secondary endpoints. Post hoc analyses suggested potential effect on neuropsychiatric symptoms and functioning in more behaviorally impaired study population at baseline.

Prediction of Conversion to Alzheimer's Disease with Longitudinal Measures and Time-To-Event Data.

BACKGROUND: Identifying predictors of conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is critically important for AD prevention and targeted treatment. OBJECTIVE: To compare various clinical and biomarker trajectories for tracking progression and predicting conversion from amnestic mild cognitive impairment to probable AD. METHODS: Participants were from the ADNI-1 study. We assessed the ability of 33 longitudinal biomarkers to predict time to AD conversion, accounting for demographic and genetic factors. We used joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data to examine the association between changes of measures and disease progression. We also employed time-dependent receiver operating characteristic method to assess the discriminating capability of the measures. RESULTS: 23 of 33 longitudinal clinical and imaging measures are significant predictors of AD conversion beyond demographic and genetic factors. The strong phenotypic and biological predictors are in the cognitive domain (ADAS-Cog; RAVLT), functional domain (FAQ), and neuroimaging domain (middle temporal gyrus and hippocampal volume). The strongest predictor is ADAS-Cog 13 with an increase of one SD in ADAS-Cog 13 increased the risk of AD conversion by 2.92 times. CONCLUSION: Prediction of AD conversion can be improved by incorporating longitudinal change information, in addition to baseline characteristics. Cognitive measures are consistently significant and generally stronger predictors than imaging measures.

Validation of olfactory deficit as a biomarker of Alzheimer disease.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated smell identification as a biomarker for Alzheimer disease (AD) by assessing its utility in differentiating normal aging from an amnestic disorder and determining its predictive value for conversion from amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) to AD. METHODS: Cross-sectional study (AD = 262, aMCI = 110, controls = 194) measuring smell identification (University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test [UPSIT]) and cognitive status was performed, as well as longitudinal analysis of aMCI participants (n = 96) with at least 1 year follow-up (mean 477.6 ± 223.3 days), to determine conversion by National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria. RESULTS: Odor identification and disease status were highly correlated after correcting for age, sex, and APOE (p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC)/area under the curve (AUC) was similar for the 40-item UPSIT, the top 10 smells in our study, and the 10-item subset previously proposed. Smeller/nonsmeller based on the 10-item subset with a cutoff of 7 (≤7, nonsmeller; >7, smeller) had a sensitivity and specificity of 88% and 71% for identifying AD and 74% sensitivity and 71% specificity for identifying an amnestic disorder. A total of 36.4% of participants with impaired olfaction and 17.3% with intact olfaction converted to AD (p = 0.03). The ROC/AUC for prediction of conversion to AD was 0.62. CONCLUSIONS: Olfactory identification deficit is a useful screening tool for AD-related amnestic disorder, with sensitivity and specificity comparable to other established biomarkers, with benefits such as ease of administration and low cost. Olfactory identification deficit can be utilized to stratify risk of conversion from aMCI to AD and enrich clinical trials of disease-modifying therapy. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that smell identification (10-item UPSIT subset) accurately identifies patients with amnestic disorders.